Abraham Lincoln Knew How to Milk a Metaphor

kid afraid of snakeI could go on quoting Abraham Lincoln all day long, for he was one of the finest writers of his or any time. Here’s one very special quote, where Lincoln uses the metaphor of a snake to make distinctions between slavery itself being bad, versus policies to limit slavery to the south, versus policies to prevent slavery from expanding into new US territories.

If I saw a venomous snake crawling in the road, any man would say I may seize the nearest stick and kill it. But if I found that snake in bed with my children that would be another question. I might hurt the children more than the snake, and it might bite them.

In other words, slavery is bad, but ending slavery in the South might harm unintended victims.

Much more, if I found it in bed with my neighbor’s children, and I had found myself by a solemn oath not to meddle with his children under any circumstances, it would become me to let that particular mode of getting rid of the gentleman alone.

In other words, once they signed on to the Constitution, Northerners became duty-bound to leave slavery alone in the south.

But if there was a bed newly made up, to which the children were to be taken, and it was proposed to take a batch of young snakes and put them there with them, I take it no man would say there was any question how I ought to decide.

And that is the reasoning by which Lincoln concluded that slavery should not be expanded into new territories, a position the south could not tolerate, because Southerners saw such a policy as the beginning of the end of slavery in their lands. What a brilliant way to frame the argument.
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Blue Cross Previews Health-Exchange Plan Rates

bcbs aca plansBlue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina will offer individual health plans through new on-line exchanges ranging from $185 for the lowest-cost plan for 25-year-olds to $947 for the top plan for a 60-year old.
Those rates were among those the insurer included Thursday in a preview of the plans it will look to sell through the online exchange launching as part of the federal health care overhaul.
The insurer is one of three insurance companies that filed to sell insurance through the exchange in North Carolina. Blue Cross said it’s the only insurer that’s offering coverage in every county in the state.
The exchange is an online health insurance store that will open for business Oct. 1, and will close in March. Next year, federal law will require people to have insurance or face a penalty. The penalty starts at $95 an adult, or 1 percent of income – whichever is higher – next year…(Read more here)

Abraham Lincoln's Original Interpretation of Original Intent

Lincoln at GettysburgFor at least the last few decades, conservative legal scholarship in United States has paid a great deal of attention to the idea of original intent. According to this view, the best way to interpret the Constitution of the United States is to imagine what the writers of that document meant at the time they wrote it, and to make sure that modern interpretations do not stray any further than necessary from this meaning.
But Abraham Lincoln was way ahead of current legal scholars in thinking this way about the Constitution. And they might be surprised to find that what he decided the framers of the Constitution signified when they avoided using the words slave or slavery in the document:

The thing is hid away, in the Constitution, just as an afflicted man hides away a wen or a cancer, which he dares not cut out at once, lest they bleed to death; with the promise, nevertheless, that the cutting may begin at the end of a given time.

After reviewing subsequent laws, early in the nation’s history, Lincoln concludes:

We see the plain unmistakable spirit of that age, toward slavery, was hostility in the PRINCIPLE, and toleration ONLY BY NECESSITY.

I am not a fan of limiting ourselves to constitutional interpretations that rely on original intent. In large part,  I do not think the writers of the Constitution expected our country to be stagnant. But just as importantly, I do not think we can often determine intent confidently. Lincoln’s creative interpretation stands as an example of just how flexible the idea of original intent can be.
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The Rise of Government Spending: An International View

An article from The Economist last April explored Margaret Thatcher’s influence on government spending in Britain during her tenure as prime minister. The magazine published a very interesting graphic, showing the rise of government spending in five countries. I thought I would reproduce the picture for you here, because it illustrates some fascinating issues:

government spending

First, at the risk of being parochial, it is interesting to see that the United States is still on the lower end of government spending, compared to these other countries. Second, the long-term trend for all these countries points towards increased government spending, with stops and starts in some countries more than others, but with what looks like an inevitable uptick over time. That is a huge challenge for virtually every developed country on the planet.
And lest we, in United States, think we can brag about our relatively low government spending, remember that this figure illustrates spending as a percent of GDP. And the US has a higher GDP than these other countries. In terms of spending per capita, I doubt we are much better than any of these countries.
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Be Careful What Standards You Use to Judge Historical Figures: The Case of Abraham Lincoln

abraham_lincoln2It’s always tricky to judge anyone’s moral character, much less that of historical figures who lived during times very different from our own. Most of the great people who founded the United States, for example, had slaves. Some even sired children with those slaves – like Thomas Jefferson. Hard to know how to judge that.
But most people feel pretty comfortable judging Abraham Lincoln, as being a great man with views on race well beyond those of his times. And that, indeed, is the truth. But take a closer look at what enlightened thinking looks like in those times. Here are words from a speech Lincoln gave where he tried to draw on the distinction between freeing slaves versus giving Negroes complete equality:

I have never seen to my knowledge a man, woman or child who was in favor of producing a perfect equality, social and political, between Negroes and white men. I recollect of but one distinguished instance that I ever heard of, so frequently as to be entirely satisfied of its correctness – and that is the case of Judge Douglas’s old friend Col. Richard M Johnson.

This drew laughter from the audience, as Lincoln anticipated, because Johnson was known to have had children with a woman of “mixed race.” Lincoln then continued milking the crowd for laughter:

I will also add… That I have never had the least apprehension that I or my friends would marry Negroes if there was no law to keep them from it, [more laughter from crowd] but as Judge Douglas and his friends seem to be in great apprehension that they might, if there were no law to keep them from it, [even more laughter] I give him the most solemn pledge that I will to the very last stand by the law of this State, which forbids the marrying of white people with Negroes.

Remember that what Lincoln was espousing back then, as awful as it sounds to us now, was a dangerously progressive view at that time.
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What Mammograms Teach Us About Wildfires, Floods, and Tornadoes

colorado-floodIn the wake of the horrific floods that struck Colorado recently, many people have debated whether global warming is to blame. The same goes for wildfires that hit that state this summer and for the massive tornado that struck in Oklahoma this spring. In the wake of that tornado, for instance, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse from Rhode Island claimed that Republican opposition to climate change legislation was at fault, for trying to “protect the market share of polluters.”  Senator Barbara Boxer was confident about the cause of the terrible twister too: “This is climate change” she said.
The same finger pointing occurred after super storm Sandy, with some people even claiming that global warming could make storms like Sandy into the new normal, occurring as often as every other year, and Governor Chris Christie just as adamantly denying that global warming played any role in this storm.
The problem with these debates is familiar to those of us in the medical community who have followed controversies about breast cancer screening—people mistakenly and all too understandably seek out explanations for individual events when science can only tell us about aggregate truths.  For the same reason we cannot tell whether an individual mammogram saved a woman’s life, we cannot determine whether any specific storm is the result of climate change.  Instead, we are left with what we can learn from statistics.
Wondering why we don’t know whether a specific mammography test saved a woman’s life? …(Read more and view comments at Forbes)

Paul Samuelson's View of Milton Friedman

friedman_samuelsonIn their book Animal Spirits, George Akerlof and Robert Shiller recount the intellectual battles waged between Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson, two of the 20th century’s most important economists. Friedman was a huge believer in the power of markets, and in consumers’abilities to make rational decisions. Samuelson also recognized the power of markets, but thought Friedman went too far. Akerlof and Shiller say that Samuelson described Friedman as:

Like the boy who knew how to spell banana but did not know when to stop.

And I will stop this post right here.
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Fear Mongering in Obamacare Debates

creepy uncle samHere is a link to a story run by Marketplace on the crazy advertisements trying to influence whether people buy health insurance on the new Obamacare health insurance exchanges. The producers at Marketplace did an amazing job of making me sound almost semi-coherent. I’d love to hear your thoughts on the topic – the topic being these crazy ads, not my semi-coherence.
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On Economics and Fairness

albert reesAlbert Rees was a University of Chicago trained economist who wrote some of the most influential works in the field of labor economics. Despite his Chicago training – Chicago being the epicenter of the idea that humans are guided largely by rational choice – he was well aware of something crucial missing from economic theory: the idea of fairness. Here’s a great paragraph from something he wrote near the end of his career:

In none of these roles [working for two presidential administrations, directing two corporations, being provost of Princeton University, and president of the Alfred Sloan foundation] did I find the theory that I taught so long to be the slightest help. The factors involved in setting wages and salaries in the real world seemed to be very different from those specified in the neoclassical theory. The one factor that seemed to be of overwhelming importance in all these situations was fairness.

Or as I usually put it: the strongest determinant of someone’s happiness with their salary is whether the person in the next office, or adjoining cubicle, is paid more than they are.
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Great Opening Paragraph: On Monk Seals?

monk sealHere’s the opening paragraph from a New York Times magazine article published in May of this year, about monk seals. What a great way to open the piece:

The Hawaiian monk seal has wiry whiskers and the deep, round eyes of an apologetic child. The animals will eat a variety of fish and selfish, or turn over rocks for eel and octopus, then haul out on the beach and lie there most of the day, digesting. On the south side of Kawai one afternoon, I saw one sneeze in its sleep: it’s complex body shuddered, then spilled again over the sand the way a raw, boneless chicken breast will settle on a cutting board. The seals can grow to 7 feet long and weigh 450 pounds. They are adorable, but also a little gross: the Zach Galifianakises of marine mammals.

Although I doubt one of the seals will have a role in Hangover 4.
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PeterUbel