A dozen years ago, my wife filled out an NCAA bracket on a popular website. Out of more than 1 million entries, she finished somewhere around 17th.
Think about it: 17th out of a million. Clearly I married up! I mean everyone says their spouse is one in a million, but how many really mean it?
So how impressed should any of us be by my wife’s bracketology success? And what does her success tell us about the brilliance of this year’s top investment managers?
Let’s be honest. Most years, in most offices, the winning NCAA bracket comes from someone who is far from an expert on college basketball. In fact, it almost has to be that way. Knowledgeable people do not pick VCU to make it to the final four, or Lehigh to beat Duke. By the end of this year’s NCAA tournament, the person with the top ranking bracket in the country will have to have picked several early round upsets. And picking upsets is mainly a function of luck, not skill… (Read more and view comments at Forbes)