Baby Thoughts from Andrew Solomon

far from the treeA quote from Far From the Tree I thought I’d share:

“There is no such thing as reproduction. When two people decide to have a baby, they engage in an act of production, and the widespread use of the word reproduction for this activity, with its implication that two people are but braiding themselves together, is at best a euphemism to comfort prospective parents before they get in over their heads”

I guess I should have read this book before my wife and I had our two kids!
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Pope Francis Would Be a Great Physician

Pope FrancisThe New Yorker recently published a very nice article on Pope Francis. At one point in the article, the Pope explains why he is trying to deemphasize all the controversies that have taken up so much of the Church’s attention in recent years, controversies about birth control, abortion and the like. His explanation shows a respectable understanding of medical care:

The thing the Church needs most today is the ability to heal wounds and to warm the hearts of the faithful. It is useless to ask a seriously injured person if he has high cholesterol and about the level of his blood sugars! You have to heal his wounds. Then we can talk about everything else. Heal the wounds.

There are many physicians I have worked with who don’t have such a keen sense of how to set priorities in healthcare. So if things don’t work out for him as Pope, maybe he has a second career waiting for him!
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Name That President

mystery manRead the following quote, and try to guess which U.S. president made this statement:

“A responsible budget is not our only weapon to control inflation.  We must act now to protect all Americans from healthcare costs that are rising $1 million per hour, 24 hours a day, doubling every 5 years.  We must take control of the largest contributor to that inflation – skyrocketing hospital costs.”

Would you be surprised to learn that those words came out of the mouth of…Jimmy Carter?  It might be hard to remember, but Carter was essentially a fiscally conservative Democrat.  Probably more fiscally conservative than Ronald Reagan was during his presidency.  But in any case, Carter’s entire vision of healthcare reform was to control healthcare costs.  Not a vision easy to get many people excited about, as Paul Ryan has no doubtedly discovered more recently.  That might explain why Jimmy Carter got nowhere in reforming the U.S. healthcare system.
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Why JFK Failed to Pass Medicare

jfkIn a late night phone call during a foreign policy crisis, Kennedy expressed disdain for domestic policy, showing the kind of attitude that doomed later efforts to reform the U.S. healthcare system:

“It really is true that foreign affairs is the only important issue for a president to handle, isn’t it?  I mean, who gives a shit if the minimum wage is $1.15 or $1.25 in comparison to something like this?”

Need I say more?
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Fair Wages and Happiness

According to traditional economic theory, when people perform jobs for pay, they decide whether the pay they receive is large enough to justify the effort they put into the task at hand. But what if someone else is doing the same work for more pay? They probably won’t feel so great about their jobs anymore, will they? How basic is this reaction?
Watch this fascinating video of Capuchin monkeys, one of whom feels he is getting screwed:

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When It Came to Medicare Costs LBJ Concluded "What's $400 Million Between Friends!"

Lyndon_JohnsonLyndon Johnson’s advisers were worried. They were drafting a Medicare proposal, a major component of Johnson’s war on poverty. But the cost of this program was turning out to be much larger than expected. By their estimates, in the first year alone, they would face $400 million more in expenditures than they had budgeted for. The advisers asked Johnson what the administration should do, and Johnson replied: “Well, I guess I’ll run and get my brother.” That answer didn’t make sense to his aides, of course.  So he continued:

“Well, I remember one time they were giving a test to a fellow who was going to be a switch man on the railroad, giving him an intelligence test, and they said, ‘What would you do if a train was coming east going 60 mph, and you looked over your shoulder and another one was coming from the west going 60 mph?’  And the fellow said, ‘I’d go get my brother.’  And they said, ‘Why would you get your brother?’  And he said, ‘Because he hasn’t ever seen a train wreck.’”

Johnson was famous for using colorful yarns to calm his colleagues. When his colleagues pushed back on the cost of the impending legislation, he replied with another folksy story that put an end to any discussion of foregoing the legislation… (Read more and view comments at Forbes)

Ancient Greek Philosopher Anticipates Behavioral Economics Finding

epicurusI have conducted a number of studies on a phenomenon sometimes referred to as emotional adaptation. The basic idea behind this phenomenon is that people often respond with strong emotions to significant changes in their circumstances, but these emotions tend to diminish over time. Moreover, people often fail to anticipate this change in emotions, a failure that psychologists Dan Gilbert and Tim Wilson called “immune neglect.”
So you can imagine that my interest was piqued when I came across this quote from Epicurus, way back in the times of ancient Greece (although I don’t think they called it ancient Greece back then).

“Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; but remember that what you now have was once among the things you only hoped for.”

This quote doesn’t point exactly towards immune neglect, but it implicitly acknowledges emotional adaptation. We get satiated, or satisfied, with what we have, and therefore yearn for more. But sometimes it’s good to take a step back and remember that what we have right now, often, is pretty darn good. It might even have been what we yearned for previously.

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The Loneliest Number

tukeyIf you ever want to know why one is the loneliest number, consider the words of John Tukey, a prominent American mathematician from the 20th century. Not the most socially adept person in the world, he relied heavily on his wife Elizabeth to help them live a normal life. When she died in 1998 Tukey tersely described the pain he was feeling, and put it into terms that he, as a mathematician, could relate to so profoundly. He said: “One is so much less than two.”
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Why It Is Crucial to Practice Your Sense of Humor Now!

the theory that would not dieIn The Theory That Would Not Die, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne brings to life many famous scientists and statisticians, the one of the moments that struck me most was when she described one of those people as he faced his death. That person was Jerome Cornfield, a prominent statistician at the NIH. Cornfield had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, and understood that he would be lucky if he lived more than six months. He had just undergone an operation to remove his cancer, a procedure known to be about as miserable to go through as any I’ve encountered, and one with a high operative mortality rate. A friend came into his hospital room and said: “Jerry, I’m so glad to see you.” Smiling, Cornfield replied, “That’s nothing compared to how happy I am to be able to see you.”
Near the end of his life, he passed on words of wonderful wisdom to his daughters: “You spend your whole life practicing your humor for the times when you really need it.”

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Who Said Statisticians Were Uninteresting?

ra fisherI recently read Sharon Bertsch McGrayne’s The Theory That Would Not Die, which recounts the controversial history of Bayes theorem in the world of statistics. To oversimplify quite a bit, Bayes theorem requires those using it to make an initial guess about, say, the probability that one outcome is more likely than another, and then the theorem helps them revise this probability estimate as new data comes in. Many statisticians hate this idea of starting with “a guess.” One such statistician is the very colorful, and very famous, R.A. Fisher, whom McGrayne described thusly in her book:

“Even with thick glasses he could barely see three feet and had to be rescued from oncoming buses. His clothes were so rumpled that his family thought he looked like a tramp; he smoked a pipe even while swimming; and if a conversation bored him, he sometimes removed his false teeth and cleaned them in public.”

All together now:  Eeeeewwwww!!!!

PeterUbel