Is It Irrational For Carmelo Anthony To Take So Many Three Pointers?

carmelo anthonyA jab to the right, then Carmelo steps back behind the three-point line and launches a shot. It clanks off the back of the rim. How likely is he to be the next person on his team to attempt a shot? And what are the odds that his follow-up shot will come from behind the arc?

NBA players are paid enormous sums of money to make good decisions on the basketball court. To thrive in the league, they learn to pick their spots. Some players know they should avoid three-pointers at all costs, some only take such shots when they are wide open and can set their feet, and others (Steph Curry being a great example) have a green light to toss up three-pointers just about whenever they desire.

But what happens when an NBA player misses a shot? How does such a failure influence the distance and timing of his next shot?

Psychologists have known for a while now that sports enthusiasts believe too strongly in the idea of the “hot hand” – that once a basketball player makes one or two fifteen-footers, he has proven himself to be hot and should, therefore, be fed the ball more often so he can continue his hot shooting. This hot hand theory has been shown to be fallacious, with research establishing that the likelihood of making an NBA shot has, at most, only a slight correlation to the success or failure that same player experienced with his previous shot. The majority of studies in the academic literature have shown that the outcome of the previous shot has no correlation with that of the subsequent shot, once you adjust for the average field goal percentage of the player from the distance in question. Some studies show a small correlation, but even these studies do not dispel the fallaciousness of the hot hand theory, because most of us perceive the correlation – the hot hand – to be much greater than it is… (Read more and comment on Forbes)

Media Picking Up My Critique of Lebron James

inquisitrInquisitor.com just picked up my recent Forbes post on Lebron James, and ran with it (even though, of course, that is the wrong sports metaphor for me to use). Here is their story on my story:

Forbes contributor Peter Ubel calls LeBron James the “King of Junk Food,” in a recent column for the business-finance mag.
This just in: not everyone is a fan of LeBron James.
OK, that’s not really new from Cleveland Cavaliers fans, but this perspective comes from that of a loving parent to one of the millions of kids who idolize LeBron James.
In a piece entitled “Is LeBron James Fattening His Wallet By Fattening Our Kids?” Ubel calls attention to the Miami Heat’s tens of millions in annual endorsement income, much of which comes from such benefactors as Sprite (“sugar water”), Powerade (“glorified sugar water”) and McDonald’s (“the place you wash down fries and burgers with sugar water”).
Ubel describes how huge a fan his son is of LeBron James, and—while his son would never admit to liking Powerade because of James, if he even understands the connection—that it’s clear the advertising world has worked its magic on the 13-year-old… (Read more at Inquisitr)

Is Lebron James Fattening His Wallet by Fattening Our Kids?

Fat LebronLebron James makes over $19 million per year playing basketball for the Miami Heat. Not surprisingly, this salary is peanuts compared his endorsement earnings, which in 2012 topped $42 million. Although perhaps peanuts is the wrong word to use when discussing James outside earnings, which to my knowledge have not involved foods anywhere near as healthy as peanuts. Instead, according to a recent study in the journal Pediatrics, James is King of Junk Food, earning millions of dollars endorsing Sprite (a.k.a. sugar water), Powerade (a.k.a. glorified sugar water) and McDonald’s (a.k.a. the place you wash down fries and burgers with sugar water).
My 13-year-old son is a huge Lebron fan. He owns a Lebron jersey, roots for the Miami Heat even though he’s never lived anywhere near Florida, and even defended James after his colossally misguided “decision.” Food marketers recognize that 13-year-olds like my son are strongly influenced by their idols. They know that linking popular athletes with their products will create positive psychological associations. These associations often work at an unconscious level… (Read more and view comments at Forbes)

What Bracketology Teaches Us About Banking

A dozen years ago, my wife filled out an NCAA bracket on a popular website.  Out of more than 1 million entries, she finished somewhere around 17th.
Think about it: 17th out of a million.  Clearly I married up!  I mean everyone says their spouse is one in a million, but how many really mean it?
So how impressed should any of us be by my wife’s bracketology success?  And what does her success tell us about the brilliance of this year’s top investment managers?
Let’s be honest.  Most years, in most offices, the winning NCAA bracket comes from someone who is far from an expert on college basketball.  In fact, it almost has to be that way.  Knowledgeable people do not pick VCU to make it to the final four, or Lehigh to beat Duke.  By the end of this year’s NCAA tournament, the person with the top ranking bracket in the country will have to have picked several early round upsets.  And picking upsets is mainly a function of luck, not skill… (Read more and view comments at Forbes)

Offensive Fouls and Defensive Medicine

LeBron James exploded past his defender and raced towards the lane. Serge Ibaka, the Thunder’s mountainous center, planted his feet and raised his hands straight up into the air. LeBron ducked his left shoulder and plowed right into Ibaka, who went crashing backwards into a nearby cameraman.
Offensive foul?
(Read the rest and view comments at Critical Decisions)

PeterUbel