How Screwed is North Carolina if Supreme Court Rejects Obamacare?

Affordable-Care-Act-500x218In a few months, we will find out whether the Supreme Court has decided that a critical part of the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional. If that happens, lots of people will be in lots of trouble, financially speaking. Here is a wonderful article in a North Carolina newspaper laying out some of the issues for citizens of this wonderful state:

A case before the U.S. Supreme Court could threaten the ability for more than a half-million North Carolinians to afford their health insurance.
In North Carolina, more than 560,000 people have enrolled in health coverage through the federal Health Insurance Marketplace, nearly all of whom have done so with the promise of help paying their monthly premiums in the form of subsidies from the federal government.
Based on final enrollment figures released Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, 92 percent of customers received monthly subsidies at an average of $315. That’s about 515,500 North Carolinians eligible for $162.4 million to help pay their premiums each month, and almost $1.95 billion in 2015.
But the legal mechanism through which this money flows is the subject of a lawsuit under consideration by the nation’s high court. A ruling to uphold the claim in King v. Burwell could revoke the Internal Revenue Service’s ability to give advance premium tax credits – essentially subsidies paid directly to insurance companies – to customers in states that do not run their own exchanges.
The question before the court is whether an insurance exchange set up by the secretary of Health & Human Services in the event a state does not can receive those subsidies the law says can be provided for plans purchased through an “exchange established by the state under section 1311” of the Affordable Care Act.
In North Carolina, where lawmakers chose not to create a state insurance exchange, a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs would mean residents who have purchased insurance with the help of subsidies would no longer be eligible for that financial assistance unless the General Assembly opted to create an exchange or Congress stepped in to tweak the law’s wording.
Health policy experts in the state are quick to say there is a great deal of uncertainty about how the court might rule and what conditions could be applied to a ruling, particularly one in favor of the petitioners.
But for the North Carolina residents who would lose their subsidies, Jonathan Oberlander can sum it up in one word: devastating.

(To read the rest of this article, please visit The Fayetteville Observer.)

More on Healthcare.gov 3.0

healthcaregovlogo
Here is a nice follow-up story on my recent New England Journal article on improving the design of health insurance exchanges.

Comparing health insurance plans – whether signing up through Healthcare.gov or weighing employer-sponsored plans with a spouse – can feel like wading through a sea of information on deductibles, co-payments and monthly premiums. Now that more than 11 million people have chosen a plan during this year’s Healthcare.gov enrollment period, which ended on Feb. 15, three experts are pondering how to make this intimidating task even easier for next year’s registrants? They have laid out their prescription for improving the health insurance marketplace, grounded in psychology and behavioral research, in a perspective published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
“This is a really complicated decision to make and a pretty high-stakes one, too — it can mean a lot of money,” Peter Ubel, a co-author and health marketing expert at Duke University, says. “I think a better designed system would actually be faster to go through and yet still help you make a better decision.”
In the existing marketplace, the authors don’t like the way plans are sorted into gold, silver and bronze categories.They think these labels make the gold plans inherently more desirable. The team did a preliminary test of this theory by presenting a choice of two plans to public bus riders in North Carolina – one offering lower monthly premiums but higher out-of-pocket costs than the other – and alternately labeled them “gold” and “bronze.” Inevitably, more than half of riders chose the “gold” plan, no matter if it had the higher or lower premiums and deductibles. (To read the rest of this article, please visit International Business Times.)

 

Healthcare.gov 3.0–Improving the Design of the Obamacare Exchanges

NEJMI joined two other, much smarter, colleagues in calling for the use of behavioral economics and decision psychology to improve the design of the websites people use to purchase health insurance in the U.S. That article came out today in the New England Journal of Medicine. Here is a taste:

In October 2013, the Affordable Care Act introduced a new insurance market — state and federal exchanges where people can purchase health insurance for themselves or their families. Although the rollout of the exchanges was disastrous, around-the-clock efforts fixed many of the biggest technical problems, and nearly 7 million people purchased insurance in the new market. The second round of enrollment exposed some new problems with the exchange websites — for example, Colorado’s website had difficulty determining whether people were eligible for tax credits — but these problems paled in comparison with those encountered when the exchanges were first rolled out. In short, we have a largely glitch-free system of health insurance exchanges that present millions of people with a robust set of health insurance choices.
Which means that it will soon be time to tackle the much more challenging job of designing exchange websites in ways that maximize the chances that consumers will choose plans best suited to their needs and preferences. If the first round of open enrollment was primarily about avoiding catastrophe and the second round was about ironing out wrinkles in the underlying programming code, then version 3.0, in our view, should focus on redesigning the way exchanges present their insurance choices, to avoid features known to bias people’s decisions.

The Era of Mega-Hospitals Has Arrived

The Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare, encourages healthcare providers to join together in what are called Accountable Care Organizations. Prior to the passage of Obamacare, hospitals were already pursuing mergers, in an effort to gain market share and have better negotiating ability with insurance companies. That trend looks like it has accelerated since the passage of Obamacare:
Mega Hospitals MergersThanks to Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) for pointing this out on his twitter feed.

Obamacare 2.0—Better than Version 1.0?

Obamacare 2.0Paige Rentz, an excellent reporter at the Fayetteville Observer, recently posted a question and answer piece, exploring some of the pressing issues facing the second round of insurance enrollment, on the Obamacare health insurance exchanges. I suggest you look at the entire article. But here is a snippet:

What’s at stake?
Last year, North Carolina far exceeded enrollment expectations, with more than 357,000 residents becoming insured through the federal insurance marketplace.
“I don’t know if the stakes are higher than last year,” said Jonathan Oberlander, a professor who specializes in health policy at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
“Probably the first time around, it was the most important because we didn’t know how things were going to go.”
He said the Affordable Care Act has some momentum, especially in North Carolina, which outperformed much of the country.
Peter Ubel, a professor at Duke University who specializes in health policy and economics, said he thinks the stakes are much lower.
“I can’t imagine they’ll mess up on the scale they did on the first time.”

What Jonathan Gruber Didn't Say About Obamacare

Jonathan Gruber Buckteeth (640x406)Jonathan Gruber went from unknown to infamous in the last few weeks, a result of disparaging comments he made about the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) and even more disparaging ones he made about the American people. According to Gruber, the Obama administration counted on “the stupidity of the American voter” to pass the bill. In fact, the Obama team’s “lack of transparency” was deliberate, because they believed the law would not have passed if people fully understood it.

Under the sharp glare of our politicized media, Gruber’s comments have led to predictable disputes about what the comments really meant, and whether he accurately described the Obama administration and, of course, about who-the-heck Gruber is. He is described as an “architect” of the law on the right. On the left, he is portrayed as “did you say ‘Gruden’? ‘Goober?’ Sorry never heard of him.”

I’m not here to analyze Gruber’s infamous remarks. Instead, I am here to remark upon what Gruber has not said about Obamacare. (To read more and leave comments, please visit Forbes.)

Don't Blame Obamacare for Health Insurance Turnover

When the health insurance exchanges began operating last year, critics complained that people were being forced out of their insurance plans. They correctly pointed out that Obama was mistaken to promise that “if you like your healthcare plan, you will be able to keep your plan.” Obama’s promise was wrong not because the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) ripped irreplaceable insurance plans from people. He was wrong because he failed to recognize that the way the insurance industry works in the U.S.,  people regularly lose their plans.
A study in Health Affairs by Benjamin Sommers (from the Harvard School of Public Health) explored what happened to a nationally representative population of non-elderly people who – ahem, prior to the ACA – purchased insurance without the help of an employer or union. His analysis shows tremendous turnover in health insurance coverage. (Please visit Forbes to read the full article and view comments.)

What’s Really Scary about Obamacare

This cartoon made the rounds of twitter a few weeks ago, and was first brought to my attention by Timothy McBride (@mcbridetd). But it is such an entertaining cartoon, I thought I would circulate it again:
Scary About OBAMAcareFor all its flaws, Obamacare has done more to increase access to health insurance than any government program since Medicare.

Health Insurance Prices Declining under Obamacare

One year does not a trend make, but it does look like prices for health insurance under Obamacare next year will decline, on average. Ezra Klein, over at Vox.com, produced a nice picture of these prices:
Benchmark plan percentage change 2014-2015
Who knows: in the long run, maybe the name of this law – The Affordable Care Act – will be deserved.

PeterUbel